Curse

Abnaxus · Nov 23, 2007, 10:47 PM // 22:47

I think that there's something "at least" strange in the mechanism.

This evening before doing a mission with my warrior, I logged with one of my mule character and found a 1st year birthday present.
Opened, fungal wallow - well I have a couple of them already, anyway ...

Finished mission, I wanted to place some items on a mule, the previous was full, logged to another and found another 1st year birthday present.
Opened, fungal wallow

Bleah, very bad luck, 2 in the same evening.

Did another mission with my friend to help him in Tyrian guardian, then I took my dervish because I bought some scythe upgrades and wanted to use them.
My dervish had his 1st year present ...
My friend offered himself to open for me, I thought that was not necessary, opened myself ...
Fungal wallow.

Three in the same evening on the same account. It is possible that it's a coincidence, but it's not likely at this point.

The 3 characters were not created in the same day, it's possible that some presents had been there for 1 week or more.
All the 3 of them had been parked in the same place (guild hall) for 1 month at least. I opened the 3 packages there, with an interval of half an hour each.

In my opinion, the day/hour and the place where you are when you open (or get?) the present are in some way taken into account by the "random" generator.
After my experience, this "randomness" is a bit suspicious.

I don't complain about the quality - with the exception of Mallyx and asians I already have dozens of minis, mostly bought with exception of Lich and Djinn which I received on my characters - but I'm just not convinced about the fact that the random generator is really random.

Antheus · Nov 23, 2007, 10:53 PM // 22:53

Quote:

After my experience, this "randomness" is a bit suspicious.

Your interpretation of randomness is wrong. What you're talking about is balanced or fair.

I MP I · Nov 23, 2007, 10:56 PM // 22:56

I've opened presents on characters with the same birthdays in 2 minute intervals. Never got something like that. Same with my friends. Though whats happened to you, has also happened to others on this forum. Its either bad luck, or the generator is bugged to hell.

kartmaster · Nov 23, 2007, 11:00 PM // 23:00

My mule character sat for quite some time as well (at least a month before I discovered the birthday present) and what do you know...Fungal Wallow! Bleh.

It is suspicious that they were all parked for quite sometime before opening the present. And all were fungal wallows, but I'd still chalk it up to chance unless there were more examples to go on.

Abnaxus · Nov 23, 2007, 11:06 PM // 23:06

I clarified in my OP that I'm not complaining about the fungal wallow, had I received 3 bone dragons I would been happier because of the cash income of course, but I would have reported the same way as an example of something really strange.

Skuld · Nov 23, 2007, 11:22 PM // 23:22

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antheus

Your interpretation of randomness is wrong. What you're talking about is balanced or fair.

QFT.

characters

Fates · Nov 23, 2007, 11:27 PM // 23:27

This isn't new. There have been a # of threads on here about people getting the same thing over and over. A friend of mine has gotten 3 gwens.

Tender Wolf · Nov 23, 2007, 11:42 PM // 23:42

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fates Monk

This isn't new. There have been a # of threads on here about people getting the same thing over and over. A friend of mine has gotten 3 gwens.

3 GWENS?! *steals* lol Just kidding. I've only had one birthday and the only reason I had what I got (burning titan) was because another friend gave me his because he didn't want it. Other than that, never seen this happen. Except for a friend who logged in for the first time in months and had 4 birthday presents waiting for him. 2 necrid horsemen and 2 jungle trolls. And a mini Koss (one jungle troll was from a while back).

Jongo River · Nov 23, 2007, 11:53 PM // 23:53

Bah, random just sucks. It's a fictional concept, based on flawed math - I'd rather live in a communist state, than a random state. Give us ####### vouchers for our birthdays, like smart relatives do.

I once heard the lottery referred to as "the idiot tax" - well it made me laugh, so I thought I'd mention it here!

Trub · Nov 24, 2007, 12:09 AM // 00:09

baby wallows are the best mini in the game..

<3

notskorn · Nov 24, 2007, 12:10 AM // 00:10

Has anyone ever actually said that its random?

Str0b0 · Nov 24, 2007, 12:13 AM // 00:13

random does not mean that you will get something different every time. Think of it this way, random means that every time you get a present the game rolls some dice. Just like when you roll dice in real life it is entirely possible that you will get the same result multiple times.

holababe · Nov 24, 2007, 12:17 AM // 00:17

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trub

baby wallows are the best mini in the game..

<3

Turtles then Wallows.

And we're getting skewed data because everyone who gets 3 of the same pet comes running here to report it...everyone else who gets normal minipets doesnt.

arcanemacabre · Nov 24, 2007, 12:21 AM // 00:21

Quote:

Originally Posted by holababe

Turtles then Wallows.

Agreed

My wife and I have both received completely different pets for each character's birthday. I think I've had maybe 6-7 birthday presents so far, all random and different. Rare? Well, the only rare one I've gotten was Rurik, the rest were white, but at least different.

NoXiFy · Nov 24, 2007, 12:25 AM // 00:25

You think thats bad luck? Try opening 29 Coffers to find out that the best thing you recieve is 5 Margonite gemstones.

ALL I wanted was a Mallyx because I was always extremely attached to DoA and did it four or more hours a day for several months to help obtain a Armbrace.

I now have 4 Primival remnants still sitting in my storage from the last 10 Coffers I've bought. Oh, and 6 LB scrolls.

I've always seemed a problem with "randomness" when your 600/Smite'ing in Underworld for example the prize drop is an Ecto. Now I do both sides, smite and 600, and have noticed... that the total ecto count of a 30-40minute run is usually 3:1. I'm lucky to get 1ecto... or even a purple.

I know that my 1st birthday in three months will be a complete waste because... for one, 3rd year mini's will be out within 3 weeks of it. And I know that by that time if im lucky enough to actually score a Bone Dragon (which won't happen) that that will sell for 50k tops.

hurric · Nov 24, 2007, 12:40 AM // 00:40

^^ ouch dude. I opened 6-7 coffers and 1 was an armbrace. Woulda been better off to exchange 15 sets instead.

For me it's greens. I've farmed many many times for greens with guildies just to see everyone get a green and I come home empty handed. Worst was darksong which dropped 2-3 times for everyone else but not for me on different chars. I finally got 1 probably after 100 times or so. Bday coming this Sat or Sun so will know!

edit: Also computers .random() function is not truely random because it depends on the seed that it uses so there's actually a repeatable pattern that it generates. When I was in university we wrote a "true" random generator so unless they've modified their randomizer instead of using C++'s build in math.rand() functions it won't truely be random.

Abnaxus · Nov 24, 2007, 12:50 AM // 00:50

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antheus

Your interpretation of randomness is wrong. What you're talking about is balanced or fair.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Str0b0

random does not mean that you will get something different every time. Think of it this way, random means that every time you get a present the game rolls some dice. Just like when you roll dice in real life it is entirely possible that you will get the same result multiple times.

Well guys, I know how the probability of independent events works.

The example of the dice is correct.

My question is: this is not rolling dice.
This is a software.
We don't know how it was programmed.
How can we be really sure that this unknown software perfectly emulates a dice roll model?

I'm closer to this opinion:

Quote:

Originally Posted by notskorn

Has anyone ever actually said that its random?

and this:

Quote:

Originally Posted by hurric

Also computers .random() function is not truely random because it depends on the seed that it uses so there's actually a repeatable pattern that it generates.

Of course, we'll never know how things really work, only few people in A.net dev team have the answer.

Vinraith · Nov 24, 2007, 01:00 AM // 01:00

I've often wondered if the GW randmization seed isn't based off the clock, because it seems like repetition occurs more often in cases where multiple items drop at or nearly at the same moment.

The Meth · Nov 24, 2007, 01:02 AM // 01:02

How the Guild Wars Mini Pet Generator™ works:

An Anet employee is sitting in his cubicle 24/7. Every time someone opens a present he has to push a button that determines what pet they will get. If you have received crappy mini pets, it is because Anet hates you!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vinraith

I've often wondered if the GW randmization seed isn't based off the clock, because it seems like repetition occurs more often in cases where multiple items drop at or nearly at the same moment.

I've thought the same thing often, just today the same person got the same skin gold from 2 consecutive monster drops. In the whole map maybe 6ish other golds dropped?

pkodyssey · Nov 24, 2007, 01:10 AM // 01:10

Random = Conspiracy

They look to see what you last present was and then multiply your chance of getting the same thing again by 2000%